Ballot Name Order

The order of candidate names on the November 2nd ballot has been determined, as indicated by a memo from the City of Simi Valley today. I’ve often wondered if the order of the listing has any impact on the results for those who cast votes despite not being up to date on who the candidates are. I’m not sure if that’s really ever mattered as far as the big picture is concerned, I just know that it’s never really mattered to me.

Nevertheless, the order has been determined and the memo can be seen by clicking here if you’re so inclined!

5 thoughts on “Ballot Name Order

  1. Mike,

    There is plenty of research that in a low information race with many candidates it does matter. Not for president or governor and maybe not for mayor with all of the campaigning happening but for something like park board it has been proven to be a real factor.

    Like

  2. Ted,

    Once again you make my brain hurt with your questions. So with but a little googling around, I found the following study from the Universtiy of Vermont re Ballot Order Effect:

    “The results show that being listed first on the ballot had a significant and positive impact on a candidate’s vote share in the 2002, 2004 and 2006 Vermont state house elections. The regression coefficients indicate that candidates in the 2002 election that were listed first on the ballot received, on average, a vote share 3.4 percentage points higher than candidates listed second on the ballot (7.055 minus 3.585) and 7 percentage points higher than candidates listed third or lower on the ballot. Likewise, the in the 2004 election that were listed first on the ballot received, on average, a vote share 8.8 percentage points higher than candidates listed second or lower on the ballot (the coefficient for being listed second on the ballot is not statistically significant, that is no different from 0). The ballot order effect for 2006 was less, but still statistically significant; candidates listed first won, on average, 3.78 percentage points more of the vote than those listed second or lower on the ballot.

    More at the link for those interested in obscure election research.

    http://www.uvm.edu/~vlrs/PoliticalProcess/ballotordereffects.pdf

    Of course, it never hurts to be lucky.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s